October 9, 2008
unnamedplayer: caffeinated: unnamedplayer: pictured above from left to right, osama bin oden, dwight howard, and asia. seriously what is that face that yao ming is making? caffeinated: several half-baked reblog ideas: one of these things is not like the others… something about how Oden is/will be a bust something about a basketball axis of evil i would like to bet you that Oden won’t be a bust.  100$? 250$? 500$?  and define bust … is Emeka Okafor a bust? caffeinated: Okafor is not a bust, but there are a few key differences.  Most importantly, he was picked #2, not #1.  Closely tied to that is the fact even though he was strongly considered for the #1 pick, it turns out Orlando was right to pick Howard instead—if Durant ends up much better than Oden, then it makes him more of a bust.  Additionally, it looks like Okafor’s draft year (2004) was particularly weak, so even though he’s not a dominant player he was probably the best player available.  Luol Deng, Al Jefferson, Josh Childress if you like tsatsiki, and maybe Devin Harris are the only players that really should have been picked ahead of him. Also, Okafor averages 13.8 points / 10.7 boards / 1.7 blocks per game.  Oden will probably get more blocks, and he might get 11 boards, but I don’t see him cracking 10 points a game for much of his career. I can’t decide if anything short of a future All-Star is a bust with the #1 pick.  That’s probably too high a bar, but from skimming through the past 30 drafts, not by a lot.  Interestingly, it looks like drafting was easier 10-20 years ago: almost all the #1 picks in that era made at least one All-Star game (about 1/3 to 1/4 made the Hall of Fame, it seems).  Then it gets more spotty. Anyway, I don’t think Oden will ever go to an All-Star game.  He might make a few All-Defense teams.  Alternatively, even if Oden does make an All-Star game, Durant will go to more.  And Oden might win a title, just because Portland’s front office is so good these days, but he won’t be the MVP of whichever team he wins with. I’ll have to think about the bet based on further discussion of what a “bust” is.

unnamedplayer:

caffeinated:

unnamedplayer:

pictured above from left to right, osama bin oden, dwight howard, and asia.

seriously what is that face that yao ming is making?

caffeinated: several half-baked reblog ideas:

  1. one of these things is not like the others…
  2. something about how Oden is/will be a bust
  3. something about a basketball axis of evil

i would like to bet you that Oden won’t be a bust.  100$? 250$? 500$?  and define bust … is Emeka Okafor a bust?

caffeinated: Okafor is not a bust, but there are a few key differences.  Most importantly, he was picked #2, not #1.  Closely tied to that is the fact even though he was strongly considered for the #1 pick, it turns out Orlando was right to pick Howard instead—if Durant ends up much better than Oden, then it makes him more of a bust.  Additionally, it looks like Okafor’s draft year (2004) was particularly weak, so even though he’s not a dominant player he was probably the best player available.  Luol Deng, Al Jefferson, Josh Childress if you like tsatsiki, and maybe Devin Harris are the only players that really should have been picked ahead of him.

Also, Okafor averages 13.8 points / 10.7 boards / 1.7 blocks per game.  Oden will probably get more blocks, and he might get 11 boards, but I don’t see him cracking 10 points a game for much of his career.

I can’t decide if anything short of a future All-Star is a bust with the #1 pick.  That’s probably too high a bar, but from skimming through the past 30 drafts, not by a lot.  Interestingly, it looks like drafting was easier 10-20 years ago: almost all the #1 picks in that era made at least one All-Star game (about 1/3 to 1/4 made the Hall of Fame, it seems).  Then it gets more spotty.

Anyway, I don’t think Oden will ever go to an All-Star game.  He might make a few All-Defense teams.  Alternatively, even if Oden does make an All-Star game, Durant will go to more.  And Oden might win a title, just because Portland’s front office is so good these days, but he won’t be the MVP of whichever team he wins with.

I’ll have to think about the bet based on further discussion of what a “bust” is.

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